Cenários de Evolução da Demanda de Energia no Brasil até 2010

Resumo

This paper aims to present the evolution of energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector and energy efficiency potentials deriving from the analysis accomplished through a model developed by a group oí researchers of the Energy Planning Programme of COPPE/UFRJ: the Energy Planning Integraled Model - MIPE. The sludy starls by presenting the MIPE, which is a technical and economic parametric model conceived to foresee oífer and consumption of energy through ali economic sectors in Brazil, according to three scenario. Ali scenario will be shorlly presenled, since they werc constructed following some specific assumptions. Industrial sector was disaggregated in eleven subsectors: food and beverages, ceramies, cement, ironsteel and Steel, ferro, illoy, non-ferrous metais and others from metalurgy, chemicals, paper and wood pulp, te x lile and other industries. Ali these subsectors will also be presenled as well .i>. The results of scenarii forecasts. Resulls deriving from the forecasts come from very specific studies lhat analyse ali process steps from each subsector in order to be able to propose energetic substitutions or efficieniy improvemenls or struclural produetion changes, lhat lead to imporlant energy consumption reduclions potential. Last bul no least, this paper will show the evolution forecasts deriving from lhe three scenario constructed for a period of ten years and its contributions to Brazilian energy efficiency in the industrial sector.